• Jury out on the Pound still as another crunch week begins

    Friday saw more buyers piing into the Pound on seemingly Brexit deal-positive vibes but with the EU and DUP expressing due caution over the weekend we've seen another reality check which rally sellers like me have been keen to take advantage of in Asia and early European trading. Today's Queen's Speech introducing new Tory government policy is merely a distraction and frankly pointless.

    Elsewhere we've seen some conciliatory tones in US-China trade talks but nothing the market wasn't expecting and that's given risk-off sentiment some renewed credence along with Turkey's foray into Kurdish territory still grabbing a few headlines. Holidays today in US and Canada will keep liquidity thin and therefore potential volatility higher.

    GBPUSD has retreated to 1.2556 from Friday's highs of 1.2665 and continues to provide good two-way business regardless of your needs.EURGBP has naturally found some support on the GBP retreat but tempered by EURUSD falling too amid the softer risk sentiment and currently back to 0.8772 from 0.8720 ( GBPEUR down to 1.1385 from 1.1465).GBPJPY has also enjoyed good two-way business but sellers remain ever poised in these fickle times.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Still no reason to change my view any time soon overall and as I warned on Friday we've had many moments of optimism only to be deflated but yes the current hope/optimism still has to be respected as the madness plays out.This really could still have a number of outcomes and remains pure guesswork/conspiracy theory.

    EURUSD remains underpinned helped by some risk-on EURJPY demand on Friday but we've failed around the 1.1060 offers only to hold 1.1000 on the retreat yet again. USDJPY enjoyed Friday's risk-on sentiment to test strong sell interest/resistance at 108.50 but since retreated to 108.18 this morning on renewed risk off Yen demand.USDCHF continues to find dip demand with EURCHF underpinned too as EURUSD finds support around 1.1000 with the SNB ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD failed at 0.6800 with large option expiry interest there today and Thursday and has fallen to 0.6761 helped also by AUDJPY supply returning. USDCAD has broken down through 1.3200 but finding support into 1.3180 helped by CADJPY supply and softer oil prices.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you might need some further help with.

    Soggy day indeed at Southend on Saturday as we lost 1-4 to another struggling team and we have to hope the new manager brings a bucket load of cash along with lashings of inspiration.

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.45 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2565

    EURGBP 0.8775

    EURUSD 1.1018

    GBPEUR 1.1397

    GBPAUD 1.8562

    GBPCAD 1.6589

    GBPNZD 1.9665

    GBPJPY 135.91

    GBPZAR 18.5742

    GBPHKD 9.7416

    USDJPY 108.21

    USDZAR 14.7760

    EURJPY 119.21

    EURCHF 1.0984

    EURHKD 8.5476

    AUDUSD 0.6765

    USDCAD 1.3212

    USDCHF 0.9971

    Read more...

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  • Pound rallies strongly on positive Brexit talks

    Yes folks, the roller coaster Brexit ride continues with yesterday seeing the Pound sharply higher on surprisingly positive tones to the Varadkar/Johnson talks. The devil as always is in the detail and this story is by no means over but for the moment there appears to be a level of optimism not seen in recent weeks. Certainly good enough for the algos to go into overdrive helped by a few stop- losses along the way. Today we wait on the outcome of talks between Barclay and Barnier now underway to see whether yesterday's initiatives have any legs.

    Elsewhere the US-China trade talks also show renewed hope of a deal being struck and we've seen some decent risk-on sentiment plays but once again we wait to see the detail. Turkey's foray into Kurdish territory rightly continues to grab headlines too just in case anyone thinks all is well with the world.

    GBPUSD was happily muddling around between 1.2230-80 then rallied to take out the pivotal 1.2330 I've been mentioning triggering stops and testing 1.2380. Cue more positive words from Varadkar and we saw the same rally/stop-loss pattern to post 1.2469 before stopping ahead of the large 1.2480-00 sell interest that I tweeted about.EURGBP has naturally fallen on the GBP demand and as EURUSD finds sellers around 1.1030 and we've now been down to test old support at 0.8830 (GBPEUR up to 1.1361) which we continue to hold as I type. GBPJPY has rallied strongly to 135.00 on the stronger Pound/risk sentiment combo also triggering a few stops along the way but sellers remain poised in these fickle times.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.

    It may sound like I'm being stubborn and yesterday's moves once again showed the merit of my advice to not get greedy and identify support as well as resistance levels. I have also been warning to be cautious lately with 1.2200 proving an ever bigger line in the sand for GBPUSD.Still no reason to change my view any time soon overall ( we've had many moments of optimism only to be deflated huh?) but yes the current optimism has to be respected as the madness plays out.

    EURUSD remains underpinned helped by some risk-on EURJPY demand but we've failed around the 1.1030 offers only to hold 1.1000 on the retreat with large option expiry interest in play again.USDJPY has enjoyed the risk-on sentiment to post 108.13 before running out of puff.USDCHF continues to find dip demand helped by risk-on plays and with EURCHF underpinned too as EURUSD finds support around 1.1000.

    AUDUSD has enjoyed the risk-on ride higher with AUDJPY demand helping to push through 0.6780 now and testing 0.6800. NZD traders should be aware of decent size option expiries at 0.6300 today. I prefer the rally sell strategy still overall on AUD while respecting current demand.

    USDCAD has broken down through 1.3280 helped by CADJPY demand but holding around 1.3270 as I type.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Tomorrow the soggy Shrimpers return to the hallowed Hall still without a Manager and with the rumour mill in full cry. We'll hope for a turn around but realistically these are still sorry times for the Club.

    Bigger issues in the world right now though eh?

    Have a good day/weekend out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.12 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2453

    EURGBP 0.8845

    EURUSD 1.1019

    GBPEUR 1.1303

    GBPAUD 1.8357

    GBPCAD 1.6532

    GBPJPY 134.51

    GBPZAR 18.6670

    GBPHKD 9.6564

    USDJPY 107.95

    USDZAR 14.9455

    EURJPY 118.95

    EURCHF 1.0980

    EURHKD 8.5432

    AUDUSD 0.6787

    USDCAD 1.3270

    USDCHF 0.9965

    Read more...

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  • Roller coaster risk ride as US-China trade talks play out

    Brexit aside, the US-China trade talks were always going to cast a big shadow this week and as they get underway we've already had negative and positive reports of progress and the algos have duly feasted, albeit in tight ranges still. Risk sentiment has enjoyed a roller coaster ride therefore and the jury remains out still as I type. US CPI at 12.30 GMT among a plethora of global data out today too.

    Meanwhile the Brexit debacle continues with the algos equally well fed. Today Varadkhar meets Johnson amid the varying degree of noise from both sides and we can expect more headlines but little by way of real change.

    GBPUSD found support around recent lows at 1.2200 again on the initial negative reports from US-China trade talks having spiked sharply to 1.2291 in the morning on more Brexit bs. Still being pulled around by GBPJPY risk-on/risk-off but failing to get back over offers at 1.2250 atm. EURGBP has remained underpinned on the generally softer Pound and now helped by EURUSD breaking up through 1.1000 and we've now been up to 0.9010 (GBPEUR down to 1.1098). GBPJPY has seen good two-way business again with another failure at 131.80 resulting in another retreat to test 130.80-85.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon as the current madness plays out but caution as ever is appropriate. Just ignore the noise, identify the trading ranges, and let the algos do the work. Lots of UK data in the mix shortly at 08.30 GMT then Carney speech at 09.20 GMT.

    EURUSD has finally broken 1.1000 helped by some risk-on EURJPY demand and we've been up to post 1.1019 so far.

    USDJPY has enjoyed lots of two-way business between 107.00 and 107.80 amid all the variable risk plays.USDCHF continues to find dip demand at 0.9900 but has retreated from 0.9964 as EURUSD breaks higher and EURCHF trades tightly and risk sentiment remains variable.

    AUDUSD held 0.6700 on a further fall helped by some AUDJPY supply initially but then we saw both pairs rally on the better risk sentiment and has posted highs of 0.6757. USDCAD continues to trade 1.3300-50 with CADJPY in play both sides.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.30 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2232

    EURGBP 0.9006

    EURUSD 1.1017

    GBPEUR 1.1102

    GBPAUD 1.8134

    GBPCAD 1.6283

    GBPNZD 1.9639

    GBPJPY 131.35

    GBPZAR 18.4736

    GBPHKD 9.4842

    USDJPY 107.38

    USDZAR 15.0970

    EURJPY 118.31

    EURCHF 1.0927

    EURHKD 8.5428

    AUDUSD 0.6747

    USDCAD 1.3311

    USDCHF 0.9918

    Read more...

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  • Consolidation time again as jury remains out on risk

    We've seen the Pound find some dip support again this morning as Brexit talks continue after a decent drop yesterday and the Chinese trade delegation arriving in numbers has also led to some risk-on reaction. Issues ongoing in Turkey/Syria and elsewhere though so all in the mix still and the jury remains well and truly out as we continue to trade in tight ranges.

    GBPUSD duly found support around recent lows at 1.2200 helped by some GBPJPY risk-on demand and currently breaking up through 1.2250 eeee 1.2280 in a rush as I type helped by a Times report that the EU is allegedly prepared to make some backstop concessions in a final bid to reach a deal.EURGBP has remained underpinned on the generally softer Pound and we've now been up to 0.8987 (GBPEUR down to 1.1127) before this morning's GBP rebound. GBPJPY has seen good two-way business again with a failure at 131.80 resulting in another retreat helped by a softer Pound/risk combo yesterday and breaking down to post 130.45 before also rebounding this morning.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon as the current madness plays out but caution as ever is appropriate.

    EURUSD failed to break 1.1000 yet again and that continues to be a decent line in the sand and the pair retreated again to test 1.0950 this time before rebounding to 1.0990 as I type.USDJPY yesterday fell further on the softer risk tones and we broke down through 107.00 to test the next layer of bids at 106.80 before rebounding to look at 107.30 where we've now capped three times.USDCHF duly found some dip demand at 0.9900 again and EURCHF too at 1.0860 but rally sellers will remain poised as EURUSD tests 1.1000 and softer risk sentiment overall.

    AUDUSD remains on the back foot and has posted fresh recent lows of 0.6723 helped by some AUDJPY supply yesterday before reversing but unable to get back above 0.6750 as I type. USDCAD has held around 1.3300 but still unable to break above 1.3350.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.20 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2218

    EURGBP 0.8980

    EURUSD 1.0977

    GBPEUR 1.1134

    GBPAUD 1.8128

    GBPCAD 1.6265

    GBPJPY 130.95

    USDJPY 107.12

    EURJPY 117.64

    EURCHF 1.0894

    AUDUSD 0.6744

    USDCAD 1.3304

    USDCHF 0.9922

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Pound struggling to hold gains

    It's been a notably softer Pound this week so far amid unhelpful Brexit tones with rallies short-lived albeit with limited downside for the moment. Reports last night that US and China may have made a little progress on trade talks ahead of talks resuming on Thursday helped risk sentiment but that's fading again already as European trading gets underway. All in the mix then still for a cautious but potentially busy week ahead.

    GBPUSD duly capped a couple of times around 1.2330 as a pivotal area and now finally broken down through 1.2280 but finding some more bids at 1.2260. EURGBP has remained underpinned on the generally softer Pound and we've seen a test of 0.8950 (GBPEUR down to 1.1160). GBPJPY has also seen good two-way business again with a failure at 132.20 resulting in another retreat helped by a softer Pound/risk combo in Europe and breaking down to test 131.50 again.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon as the current madness plays out but caution as ever is appropriate. Just ignore the noise, identify the trading ranges, and let the algos do the work. Already plenty of opportunities this week albeit in tight ranges.

    EURUSD once again failed to break 1.1000 which continues to be a decent line in the sand but underpinned for the moment again at 1.0965. USDJPY rallied to test 107.50 on the US-China news last night but has fallen again this morning on some softer USD and risk tones with China now responding to the US blacklisting of 28 companies.

    USDCHF has found some dip demand again and EURCHF too but rallies tempered by EURUSD capping into 1.1000 again and softer risk sentiment overall.

    AUDUSD held 0.6730-0.6735 and rallied to 0.6757 helped by AUDJPY demand on that initial US-China trade news while USDCAD broke down through 1.3300 but holding 1.3280 still.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you might need some further help with.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.35 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2283

    EURGBP 0.8938

    EURUSD 1.0981

    GBPEUR 1.1187

    GBPAUD 1.8203

    GBPCAD 1.6338

    GBPJPY 131.75

    GBPZAR 18.5804

    GBPHKD 9.5207

    USDJPY 107.26

    USDZAR 15.1535

    EURJPY 117.76

    EURCHF 1.0911

    EURHKD 8.5105

    AUDUSD 0.6748

    USDCAD 1.3300

    USDCHF 0.9938

    Read more...

    0 comments

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