• All change on risk sentiment, or is it?

    Yesterday Trump declared that some trade tariffs on China would be reduced and others delayed, although the full picture is still unclear, and we saw a sharp spike in Yen pairs as risk-off rapidly turned to risk-on. Throw in slightly better US CPI data suggesting that Fed rate cuts might not need to be as big as expected and we've seen markets in a whirl with equities higher and Gold/oil both tumbling.

    GBPUSD tried to rally after better UK wages data but failed into 1.2100 as per the order boards and as I warned on Twitter. We've been down to 1.2045 since on the general USD and GBPJPY/GBPCHF demand but still being dragged around by Brexit bs and the fragile UK political backdrop. EURGBP trading 0.9250-0.9300 still amid the uncertain tones for both Euro and Pound and risk volatility. GBPJPY duly held 126.50 with that good demand on USDJPY at 105.00 I highlighted and then soared on the USDJPY tariff news-led rally .

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.No reason to change my view any time soon although we must be respectful, as ever of the fickle risk swings.

    EURUSD failed around 1.1220 yet again (deja vu eh?) and has been down to 1.1160. Remains range bound amid all the EUR cross currency plays. USDJPY spiked to test 106.80 from 105.40 on the tariff talk but sellers/Yen buyers, including me were poised. USDCHF also rallied but tempered by EURCHF finding rally sellers again above 1.0900 amid the latest EURUSD supply but with the SNB ever watchful.

    AUDUSD found some support from AUDJPY demand but remains tightly bound with sellers above 0.6800 helped by the fall in Gold. USDCAD found itself caught in a crossfire of CADJPY selling vs USD demand and falling oil prices.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries that you might need some further help with.

    Regular readers will know of my love of cricket as well as football and I shall be in the Pavilion at Lords for the remainder of the week to watch the England vs Australia Test match but will be getting my updates to you each day before I leave.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 07.01 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2059

    EURGBP 0.9262

    EURUSD 1.1169

    GBPEUR 1.0796

    GBPAUD 1.7760

    GBPCAD 1.5948

    GBPJPY 128.32

    GBPZAR 18.2997

    GBPHKD 9.3494

    USDJPY 106.42

    USDZAR 15.1770

    EURJPY 118.85

    EURCHF 1.0898

    EURHKD 8.6600

    AUDUSD 0.6789

    USDCAD 1.3227

    USDCHF 0.9757

    Read more...

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  • Markets still in fragile mode

    All still a very mixed bag out there and markets remain dancing on hot coals with Hong Kong, US-China trade spat, US Fed, Italy and Brexit all adding to the uncertainty still.

    GBPUSD remains on the back foot but still being dragged around by Brexit bs and variable Euro sentiment with EURGBP falling to test 0.9250 before rallying but failing at 0.9300 amid the uncertain tones for both Euro and Pound. GBPJPY remains on the back foot but has still held 126.50 so far with good demand on USDJPY at 105.00. Prepare for sharp losses if that breaks.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.No reason to change my view any time soon. Today's UK wages/jobs data at 08.30 GMT might set the algos off but not of major significance right now.

    EURUSD failed above 1.1220 yet again and has been down to test the fresh 1.1175-80 bids/support amid the general EUR supply this morning. USDJPY is clinging onto 105.00 where barrier option and large expiry interest again today are helping to support but the pair remains under pressure amid the overall fragile risk sentiment. USDCHF remains on the back foot with CHF safe-haven demand still and EURCHF falling amid the latest EURUSD supply but with the SNB ever watchful.

    AUDUSD remains tightly bound with AUDJPY supply but still finding dip demand from the rising Gold price again while USDCAD duly found support into 1.3200 again helped by some more CADJPY supply and softer oil prices and is now testing resistance at 1.3260 again.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring @MikePatersonFX if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you might need some further help with. If you like/value the updates and service then be sure to tell your friends and family.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.35 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2056

    EURUSD 1.1193

    EURGBP 0.9283

    GBPEUR 1.0772

    GBPAUD 1.7847

    GBPCAD 1.5981

    GBPJPY 126.91

    GBPZAR 18.5080

    GBPHKD 9.3470

    USDJPY 105.27

    USDZAR 15.3495

    EURJPY 117.82

    EURCHF 1.0865

    EURHKD 8.6772

    AUDUSD 0.6756

    USDCAD 1.3254

    USDCHF 0.9708

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Euro weakness notable as the new week gets underway

    Some better risk sentiment (albeit temporary) on the European opening has seen a slide in the Euro as fundamentals ( Italy, dovish ECB,weak EZ data) dominate over Yuan diversification again. All still a very mixed bag out there though and markets remain dancing on hot coals.

    GBPUSD had an awful day on Friday amid soggy Q2 GDP data, risk sentiment, Brexit uncertainty and the ongoing political fallout and we've been down further to 1.2015 in Asia with EURGBP rising to highs of 0.9325 (GBPEUR down to 1.0723) not seen since Oct 2016. In the last hour it's all kicked off again amid the Euro tumble which as seen EURGBP back down to 0.9250 (GBPEUR up to 1.0810) and GBPUSD therefore boosted to post 1.2069.

    EURGBP duly kept going higher on Friday as I warned if 0.9250 broke and posted those 0.9325 highs but has retreated amid the general EUR supply this morning although dip buyers around 0.9250 (GBPEUR sellers 1.0800-10) remain poised. GBPJPY fell again as I warned but has held 126.50 so far.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.No reason to change my view any time soon. Yes folks, the same paragraph will be inserted here for a while yet!

    USDJPY has been down to post 105.28 on Friday and 105.31 this morning having broken down, and held below 105.80, amid the overall fragile risk sentiment and breaking through 105.50 support along the way. Large option expiry interest today at 105.50 should help contain but the pair looks soggy still and I continue to prefer the rally-sell/buy Yen strategy. USDCHF remains tightly bound but on the back foot still with EURCHF falling amid the general CHF demand and EUR supply but with the SNB ever watchful.

    EURUSD failed above 1.1200 again and has been down to take out the 1.1175-80 bids/support to post lows of 1.1162 amid the general EUR supply.

    AUDUSD failed at 0.6800 helped by AUDJPY supply again, plus a little Gold retreat from recent highs, to test 0.6760 but remains tightly bound. USDCAD duly found support below 1.3200 helped by some CADJPY supply and softer oil prices but a very large option expiry at 1.3250 today casts a big shadow.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you need further help with.

    The least said the better about Saturday's dismal display from the currently not so mighty Shrimpers in losing 1-3. Hey ho, life is never dull supporting them!

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.35 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2065

    EURUSD 1.1175

    EURGBP 0.9260

    GBPEUR 1.0800

    GBPAUD 1.7802

    GBPCAD 1.5962

    GBPJPY 127.25

    GBPZAR 18.5837

    GBPHKD 9.3540

    USDJPY 105.48

    USDZAR 15.4067

    EURJPY 117.82

    EURCHF 1.0890

    EURHKD 8.6612

    AUDUSD 0.6778

    USDCAD 1.3228

    USDCHF 0.9751

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Risk sentiment still fragile as another week ends

    The PBOC once again set the USDCNY reference rate above 7 but lower than expected and we've seen some variable risk plays since but overall it's all very fragile out there still with the US reportedly telling companies not to deal with with Huawei in retaliation to China's halting of US agricultural goods.

    GBPUSD had a brief look below 1.2100 again yesterday but then failed to rally through 1.216o and has been tightly bound but on the back foot since amid all the Brexit bs and this morning's release of soggy Q2 GDP, trade balance and UK production data with EURGBP holding 0.9250 and GBPJPY selling once again.

    EURGBP has retreated to test 0.9200 amid some general EUR supply initially but remains underpinned with a break of 0.9250-60 still the target.GBPJPY fell again as I warned but has held above 128.20 so far.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the soggy data and uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout.No reason to change my view any time soon.

    USDJPY has been back down to post 105.72 amid the fragile risk sentiment having once again held capped at 106.30 while USDCHF remains tightly bound as does EURCHF and EURUSD with the SNB ever watchful. EURUSD duly held 1.1240 yesterday where I noted large option expiries and has been down to look at the 1.1175-80 bids/support but that inherent dip demand kicked in again but rallies have been limited with decent option expiry interest today at 1.1200 in play.

    AUDUSD fell to 0.6777 helped by AUDJPY supply but has since rallied on more optimistic tones from the RBA. Gold price still helping too but AUD rally sellers remain poised. USDCAD remains tightly bound having fallen from highs around 1.3310 but running into support at 1.3215 so far helped by some CADJPY supply.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you might need so further help with.

    Back to the hallowed Hall tomorrow for the mighty Shrimpers' first home game of the season and we'll be there with high hopes and optimism as ever despite last week's dismal display. Bring it on !

    Have a good day/weekend out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 09.37 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2102

    EURUSD 1.1189

    EURGBP 0.9245

    GBPEUR 1.0817

    GBPAUD 1.7783

    GBPCAD 1.6006

    GBPJPY 128.22

    GBPZAR 18.3673

    GBPHKD 9.3827

    USDJPY 105.95

    USDZAR 15.1587

    EURJPY 118.53

    EURCHF 1.0903

    EURHKD 8.6740

    AUDUSD 0.6804

    USDCAD 1.3225

    USDCHF 0.9746

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Mixed bag as the roller coaster ride continues

    PBOC set the USDCNY reference rate above 7 for the first time IN 10 years but lower than expected and we've seen some variable risk plays since, initially on then off again, but FX pairs remain in tight ranges. Chinese trade data showed more surplus growth with US with imports dropping faster than exports and that will remain a focus as the trade war continues but with China saying they will talk to US again in September. Gold remains underpinned and has posted new 6+-year highs of $1510. Equities fell but then rallied as did oil.All in all the market remains in fragile mode and traders/algos dancing on hot coals still.

    GBPUSD based around 1.2120 as EURGBP rose to test 0.9250 resistance (GBPEUR support 1.0810) again and with GBPJPY falling again but we've seen some dip demand on the slightly better risk sentiment but still unable to break above 1.2185 with rally sellers ever poised.EURGBP posted highs of 0.9248 amid general EUR demand.GBPJPY fell again but rallied on that risk-on moment but rally sellers, including me, remain poised.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout.No reason to change my view any time soon.

    USDJPY has been back down to test 105.50 but held well again and recovered well enough amid better risk conditions to test 106.30. USDCHF remainds tightly bound helped by the steadier EURCHF and EURUSD with the SNB ever watchful. EURUSD fell below 1.1200 again but that inherent dip demand kicked in again before rallying and now seems to be in a range of 1.1185-1.1235 for the moment with large option expiry interest today at 1.1240 expected to cap. I'll repeat what I said yesterday in that if we see further Yuan weakening we might reasonably expect to see decent Euro demand overall as the go-to diversification and the reverse is true.

    AUDUSD has staged a decent rally to post 0.6783 helped by AUDJPY demand, Chinese data and that higher Gold price but rally sellers will remain poised. USDCAD has capped above 1.3300 helped by some CADJPY demand and oil price basing.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility that you might need so further help with.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.50 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2163

    EURUSD 1.1223

    EURGBP 0.9226

    GBPEUR 1.0837

    GBPAUD 1.7943

    GBPCAD 1.6157

    GBPJPY 128.98`

    GBPZAR 18.3360

    GBPHKD 9.4300

    USDJPY 106.05

    USDZAR 15.0720

    EURJPY 119.03

    EURCHF 1.0932

    EURHKD 8.7016

    AUDUSD 0.6778

    USDCAD 1.3285

    USDCHF 0.9743

    Read more...

    0 comments

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