• Fragile risk sentiment still prevailing overall

    We've seen more general USD supply along with Yen and Swiss Franc demand as risk sentiment remains fragile, as I have long warned, amid US-China trade talks, G20 this weekend and Middle East tensions to name but three. A little bit of correction going on in early Europe but not enough to break current trends.

    GBPUSD held above 1.2700 on the retreats and has been up to test the 1.2780-85 sell interest helped by the USD supply and EURGBP failing at 0.8960 but since capped by the offers up there and some initial GBPJPY supply. Some GBPJPY and GBPCHF demand this morning helping to underpin for the moment. EURGBP had a look at 0.8950-60 yesterday amid the EUR demand but has since retreated and remains tightly bound. GBPJPY has found some support around 136.00 again but sellers remain poised with Yen demand still notable overall.

    I remain GBP bearish overall still and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout.

    EURUSD finally took out the barrier option interest at 1.1400 but failed into the next trance of sell interest at 1.1420 and we've seen a general EUR retreat amid falling German bund yields but still running into dip demand. USDJPY has given in further to the ongoing USD supply/JPY demand combo to post fresh lows of 106.78 before finding the usual dip demand after such a fall.USDCHF remains under pressure on the USD supply/CHF demand and has had a test of 0.9700 but rallied well since to post 0.9752 and we can safely assume the SNB is once again lending a helping hand in the dips.

    AUDUSD remains underpinned helped by the rampant Gold rally amid the USD weakness/fragile risk sentiment but sellers still remain poised and we've seen some AUDNZD selling with the RBNZ expected to keep interest rates on hold tonight/tomorrow. USDCAD had a look above 1.3200 only to retreat once again on the renewed USD selling/firm oil price but has found a 1.3170 base for the moment.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    I hope my updates/tweets are helping.Feel free to contact me about discounted 1-2-1 mentoring rates if you need some clarity on current moves.

    Let's continue to be careful and don't get greedy.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.34 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2756

    EURUSD 1.1387

    EURGBP 0.8927

    GBPEUR 1.1200

    GBPAUD 1.8326

    GBPCAD 1.6817

    GBPJPY 136.47

    GBPNZD 1.9195

    GBPZAR 18.2328

    GBPHKD 9.8897

    USDJPY 106.98

    USDCAD 1.3185

    USDCHF 0.9742

    USDZAR 14.2972

    EURJPY 121.83

    EURHKD 8.8301

    EURCHF 1.1092

    AUDUSD 0.6958

    Read more...

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  • Euro feels the love amid softer Greenback

    We've seen more USD supply and it's been the Euro that's felt most of the love as shorts get squeezed in the wake of better EZ data and some SNB intervention to support EURCHF that I mentioned on Friday.

    EURUSD easily held the 1.1280 bids/support I mentioned and has rallied steadily to post highs of 1.1389 not seen since late March having broken out through decent resistance/offers at 1.1330 and 1.1350. Barrier option interest at 1.1400 proving a step too far for the moment.

    EURGBP has made sold gains too but tempered by some GBPUSD demand too amid the generally softer US$. GBPUSD finally broke through the pivotal 1.2720-30 area to post 1.2768 in early Europe only to run into fresh sellers helped by some GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply again. GBPJPY found some support around 136.50 but sellers remain poised with Yen demand still notable overall.

    I remain GBP bearish overall still and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.

    USDJPY has given in further to the ongoing USD supply/JPY demand combo to fail into 107.80 where I warned of supply building 107.50 and retreat into 107.20 on Friday and struggling to rally since.USDCHF remains under pressure on the USD supply/EURUSD rally combo and as the SNB continues to lend a helping hand to EURCHF.

    AUDUSD remains underpinned amid the the USD weakness but sellers still remain poised while USDCAD has found a 1.3150-60 base for the moment with good demand down there as I've been noting recently.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    I hope my updates/tweets are helping. If not then do let me know why not.Feel free to contact me about discounted 1-2-1 mentoring rates if you need some clarity on current moves or finding it difficult to make money from my recommendations/strategy.

    Let's continue to be careful and don't get greedy.

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.45 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2726

    EURUSD 1.1375

    EURGBP 0.8937

    GBPEUR 1.1187

    GBPAUD 1.8321

    GBPCAD 1.6793

    GBPZAR 18.1711

    GBPHKD 9.8665

    USDJPY 107.44

    USDZAR 14.2695

    EURJPY 122.18

    EURCHF 1.1118

    EURHKD 8.8196

    GBPJPY 136.70

    AUDUSD 0.6945

    USDCAD 1.3197

    USDCHF 0.9775

    Read more...

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  • Further US Dollar sales but the jury's still out

    Yesterday brought more USD supply post-Fed but we've seen a few key levels hold and that's got markets wondering whether we're heading into correction mode if not full reversal with July rate cut being now factored in.

    GBPUSD continued its rally but has held the pivotal 1.2720-30 area a couple of times and still being capped by some GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply albeit holding 1.2680 on the retreats.BOE yesterday kept rates on hold and added little of note as expected. EURGBP has been ranging still with EURUSD also rallying and retreating. GBPJPY found some support below 136.00 but sellers remain poised with Yen demand still notable overall.

    I remain GBP bearish overall still and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout.

    EURUSD has rallied to test offers at 1.1320-30 but retreated albeit with some usual dip demand with the SNB seemingly adding its own support this morning. USDJPY held up around 107.50-60 for a large part of yesterday's trading but finally gave in to the renewed USD supply/JPY demand combo to test the good support at 107.00 before rallying.

    USDCHF remains under pressure on the USD supply/CHF demand combo but has found a little SNB help with EURCHF finding a base this morning at 1.1080 after a dip through 1.1060 yesterday.

    AUDUSD has been up to test the 0.6935 offers but finding the larger 0.6950 interest a step too far amid some general USD demand.USDCAD has fallen further to test 1.3150 on the softer Greenback and with oil prices still firm.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day/week-end out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.40 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2699

    EURUSD 1.1310

    EURGBP 0.8905

    GBPEUR 1.1227

    GBPAUD 1.8356

    GBPCAD 1.6748

    GBPZAR 18.2544

    GBPHKD 9.8463

    USDJPY 107.46

    USDZAR 14.3964

    EURJPY 121.55

    EURCHF 1.1124

    EURHKD 8.7702

    GBPJPY 136.47

    AUDUSD 0.6919

    USDCAD 1.3186

    USDCHF 0.9836

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • US Dollar lower as bond yields fall

    Further to my update last night and with July seemingly nailed on for a rate cut we've seen delayed falls in the Greenback as US 10-year yields fell below 2% to levels not seen since November 2016. We've also seen some risk-off sentiment return on reports of a US drone being shot down over the Hormuz Strait which has seen oil prices rise to 3-week highs and Gold to levels not seen since 2013. All in all a heady mix once again and it remains to be seen whether its all over done a little, which is my gut feel.

    GBPUSD has continued its rally to post 1.2710 but still being capped by some GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply and tempered by the on-going political/hard-Brexit risk of the Tory Party leadership contest with two rounds of voting today identifying the final two before a postal vote from c.160k party members.BOE in the mix today too so we shouldn't be going too far in the meantime. EURGBP has been tightly bound with EURUSD also rallying. GBPJPY finally found some support into the 136.30 bids but sellers remain poised with USDJPY sliding too.

    I remain GBP bearish overall still and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always. Let's see what the BOE brings amid the rest of the fragility.

    EURUSD has rallied to post 1.1286 and has large option expiry interest again today between 1.1150 and 1.1250 while USDJPY failed into 108.20 on the post-Fed rally back from 107.89 and has since shown its vulnerability yet again to break down and post 107.47. Large option expiries today at 107.00 and 108.00 should help keep range contained.USDCHF also retreated post-Fed but so far held 0.9880 but under a little pressure with EURUSD rallying and EURCHF lower.

    AUDUSD had a little dip on RBA Lowe hinting at further interest rate cuts ( no shocks there ) but has been back up to post 0.6910 again.USDCAD has fallen further to 1.3220 on the softer Greenback and with oil prices posting 3-week highs supporting the Canadian $.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    I'm off to London now for a series of meetings so I wish you a good day. Please contact your rate providers directly should you need to deal.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 07.52 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2695

    EURUSD 1.1276

    EURGBP 0.8882

    GBPEUR 1.1258

    GBPAUD 1.8389

    GBPCAD 1.6790

    GBPZAR 18.1059

    GBPHKD 9.8463

    USDJPY 107.60

    USDZAR 14.2420

    EURJPY 121.33

    EURCHF 1.1156

    EURHKD 8.7461

    GBPJPY 136.64

    AUDUSD 0.6904

    USDCAD 1.3226

    USDCHF 0.9893

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Jury out as we wait on US Federal Reserve

    Ongoing uncertainty ahead of the US FOMC making their latest interest rate announcement tonight means we have seen tight ranges prevailing still.Lots of conjecture in recent weeks that they will cut this year, possibly today but my gut view is that I don't think they act this time but we can't rule it out.Data has been mixed, albeit not over-bullish, so a cut today might suggest they are panicking a little or being led by Trump.

    I don't hold a lot of store by second-guessing CBs anyway given that the outcome is beyond our control but it's safe to say they will remain on the cautious side and make clear they are ready to act blah blah, as indeed did ECB's Draghi yesterday which sent the Euro tumbling.

    GBPUSD held onto the strong support that I highlighted at 1.2500 and has been back up to 1.2570 helped by some profit-taking on recent moves lower (myself included) and by GBPJPY and GBPCHF demand on news that US and China are talking more positively on trade.The on-going political risk as the Tory Party leadership contest continues to play out with last night's debate offering nothing new but confirming Rory Stewart as the only candidate left ruling out No-Deal Brexit.BOE in the mix tomorrow too.

    EURGBP fell back on the Draghi comments but is holding 0.8900-05 with decent bids there prevailing so far. GBPJPY has found buyers prevailing as risk-off sentiment waned on the US-China trade talk comments but sellers remain poised with USDJPY also failing to breach 108.70 still.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout as I've been warning about for month, but happy to buy back in the dips as always.

    EURUSD's large option expiry interest at 1.1200 held the initial Draghi-led falls but afterwards we saw a test of 1.1180-85 again while USDJPY failed into 108.00 yet again but similarly failed at 108.70 again too so we're firmly entrenched in that range for the moment as we wait on the Fed.USDCHF also failed around 1.0020 after the risk-on rally but still tightly bound overall as EURUSD and EURCHF both find the expected dip demand.

    AUDUSD took out the offers/sellers at 0.6850-60 on the US-China trade news having held 0.6830 but has failed around the 0.6885 sell interest now. USDCAD fell back as oil prices firmed again combined with some good CADJPY demand on the risk-on sentiment but continuing to range as markets fear the FOMC.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    I wish you good trading and I hope my updates/tweets are helping. If not then do let me know why not.Feel free to contact me about discounted 1-2-1 mentoring rates if you need some clarity on current moves or finding it difficult to make money from my recommendations/strategy.

    I shall be at my desk for the Fed at 18.00 GMT so watch out for my tweets and I will try to send an update here too.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 07.59 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2544

    EURUSD 1.1197

    EURGBP 0.8925

    GBPEUR 1.1203

    GBPAUD 1.8243

    GBPCAD 1.6777

    USDJPY 108.27

    USDZAR 14.4634

    EURJPY 121.24

    EURCHF 1.1187

    EURHKD 8.6810

    GBPJPY 135.85

    GBPZAR 18.1614

    GBPHKD 9.7254

    AUDUSD 0.6878

    USDCAD 1.3370

    USDCHF 0.9990

    Read more...

    0 comments

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